With record highs in sight, stocks face roadblocks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - If Wall Street needs to climb a wall of worry, it will have plenty of opportunity next week.

Major U.S. stock indexes will make another attempt at reaching all-time records, but the fitful pace that has dominated trading is likely to continue. Next Friday's unemployment report and the hefty spending cuts that look like they about to take effect will be at the forefront.

The importance of whether equities can reach and sustain those highs is more than Wall Street's usual fixation on numbers with psychological significance. Breaking through to uncharted territory is seen as a test of investors' faith in the rally.

"It's very significant," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.

"The thinking is, there's just not enough there for an extended bull run," he said. "If we do break through (record highs), then maybe the charts and price action are telling us there's something better ahead."

Flare-ups in the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis and next Friday's report on the U.S. labor market could jostle the market, though U.S. job indicators have generally been trending in a positive direction.

Small- and mid-cap stocks hit lifetime highs in February. Now the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> and the S&P 500 <.spx> are racing each other to the top. The Dow, made up of 30 stocks, is about 75 points - less than 1 percent - away from its record close of 14,164.53, which it hit on October 9, 2007. The broader S&P is still 3 percent away from its closing high of 1,565.15, also reached on October 9, 2007.

The advantage may be in the Dow's court. So far in 2013, it has gained 7.5 percent, beating the S&P 500 by about 1 percent.

THE RALLY AND THE REALITY CHECK

The Dow's relative strength owes much to its unique make-up and calculation, as well as to investors' recent preference for buying value stocks likely to generate steady reliable gains, rather than growth stocks.

But the more defensive stance illustrates how stock buyers are getting concerned about this year's rally. While investors don't want to miss out on gains, they're picking up companies that are less likely to decline as much as high-flying names - if a market correction comes.

The Russell Value Index <.rav> is up 7.6 percent for the year so far, outpacing the Russell Growth Index's <.rag> 5.7 percent rise. Within the realm of the S&P 500, the consumer staples sector led the market in February, gaining 3.1 percent.

There is some concern that growth-oriented names are being eclipsed by defensive bets, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.

"This isn't a be-all and end-all sell signal by any means, but we would feel much more comfortable if some of the more aggressive areas, like technology and small caps, would start to gain some leadership here," Detrick said.

Signs that investors are becoming concerned about the rally's pace is evident in the options market, where the ratio of put activity to call activity has recently shifted in favor of puts, which represent expectations for a stock to fall.

"We are seeing some put hedging in the financials, building up for the past month," said Henry Schwartz, president of options analytics firm Trade Alert in New York.

The put-to-call ratio representing an aggregate of about 562 financial stocks is 1:1, when normally, calls should be outnumbering puts.

Investors have no shortage of reasons to crave the relative safety of blue chips and defensive stocks. Although markets have mostly looked past uncertainty over Washington's plans to cut the deficit, fiscal policy negotiations still pose a risk to equities.

The $85 billion in spending cuts set to begin on Friday is expected to slow economic growth this year if policymakers do not reach a new deal. Markets so far have held firm despite the wrangling in Washington, but tangible economic effects could pinch stock prices going forward.

The International Monetary Fund warned that full implementation of the cuts would probably take at least 0.5 percentage point off U.S. growth this year.

EASY MONEY AND TEPID HIRING

Investors will also take in a round of economic data at a time when concerns are percolating that the market is being pushed up less by fundamentals and more by loose monetary policy around the world.

The main economic event will be Friday's non-farm payrolls report for February. The U.S. economy is expected to have added 160,000 jobs last month, only a tad higher than in January, in a sign the labor market is healing at a slow pace. The U.S. unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 7.9 percent.

While lackluster data has been a catalyst in the past for stock market gains as investors bet it would ensure continued stimulus from the Federal Reserve, that sentiment may be wearing thin.

Markets stumbled last week following worries that the Fed might wind down its quantitative easing program sooner than expected.

"It shows the underpinning of the market is being driven at this point by monetary policy," Hellwig said.

With investors questioning what is behind the rally, it will make a run to record highs even more significant, Hellwig added.

"There's smart people that are in the bull camp and the bear camp and the muddle-through camp," Hellwig said. "The fact that you can statistically, using historical evidence, make a case for going higher, lower, or staying the same makes this number very important this time around."

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Comments or questions on this column can be emailed to: leah.schnurr(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Stock index futures signal mixed open

LONDON (Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a mixed Wall Street open on Wednesday, with futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes slipping 0.1 percent, while futures for the Dow Jones rose 0.1 percent by 0933 GMT.

U.S. durables goods and homes data due out at 1330 and 1500 GMT respectively should provide further clues on the health of the world's largest economy.

The Pentagon program chief for the F-35 warplane slammed its commercial partners Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney on Wednesday, accusing them of trying to "squeeze every nickel" out of the U.S. government and failing to see the long-term benefits of the project.

Pratt & Whitney is 99 percent sure the fan blade problem that grounded the Pentagon's 51 new F-35 fighter jets was not caused by high-cycle fatigue, which could force a costly design change, according to two sources familiar with an investigation by the enginemaker.

Airbus parent EADS predicted higher profit this year on the heels of stronger than expected 2012 earnings and a clampdown on costs, with the development of its A350 jet remaining the biggest wild card in its bid to match rival Boeing .

Partner Communications , Israel's second-largest mobile phone operator, reported weaker-than-expected quarterly profit and said it could have weak earnings throughout 2013 due to fierce competition that has slashed calling rates.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> was up 0.1 percent at 1,151.69 points by 1010 GMT on Wednesday while the euro zone's Euro STOXX 50 index <.stoxx50e> also advanced 0.1 percent, although concerns over Italy's political stalemate were likely to cap gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> gained 115.96 points, or 0.84 percent, to 13,900.13 at the close on Tuesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> rose 9.09 points, or 0.61 percent, to 1,496.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> advanced 13.40 points, or 0.43 percent, to close at 3,129.65.

(Reporting by Sudip Kar-Gupta; Editing by Susan Fenton)

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Stock index futures point to flat to higher open

LONDON (Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a mixed open on Wall Street on Monday, with futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up 0.1 and 0.2 percent respectively by 0856 GMT, while those for Dow Jones were steady.

* The U.S. stock market closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 adding 13.18 points, or 0.88 percent, to 1,515.60 <.spx>, after comments from Fed officials allayed fears that the central bank would curtail stimulus measures.

* Prospects of continued stimulus also lifted Asian and European equity markets on Monday, with the EuroSTOXX 50 benchmark of euro zone blue chips up 0.7 percent <.stoxx50e>. However, uncertainty over the outcome of Italian elections, which close on Monday, kept a lid on the gains.

* With days left before $85 billion is slashed from U.S. government budgets, the White House on Sunday issued more dire warnings about the harm the cuts will do to Americans. But Republicans, who advocate budget cuts, said the warning was overplayed and called on President Barack Obama to apply what is known as the "sequester" in a more careful way, rather than slashing budgets across the board.

* A relatively light calendar features the Chicago Fed's national activity index for February at 1330 GMT, alongside earnings from Autodesk Inc and Lowe's Companies.

* Barnes & Noble Inc Chairman Leonard Riggio is considering a bid for the company's bookstore business, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the situation.

* Disney's movie "Brave" won the Oscar on Sunday for Best Animated Feature.

* BlackRock Inc. , the world's largest money manager, has got approval from the U.S. securities regulator to list a copper-backed exchange-traded fund, potentially getting the jump on JPMorgan, whose listing of a similar product has been delayed by industry objections.

* Knight Capital Group , which recently agreed to be bought for $1.4 billion by Getco Holding Co, has struck a deal to sell its credit-brokerage unit to Stifel Financial Corp , according to a person familiar with the matter.

* Hewlett-Packard Chairman Ray Lane and fellow board members plan to meet with about 20 of the computer maker's big investors Monday in hopes of heading off a campaign to unseat Lane and two other directors, the Wall Street Journal reports.

* Office Depot Inc said late on Friday that following talks with the largest holder of its common stock, Starboard Value LP, it is extending the deadline for nominating candidates for its board at its annual meeting.

* Dick's Sporting Goods Inc shares could rise 23 percent within the next year if the largest publicly traded U.S. sporting goods retailer continues to boost profit at a mid-teens percentage rate, Barron's said.

(Reporting By Toni Vorobyova; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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Investors face another Washington deadline

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors face another Washington-imposed deadline on government spending cuts next week, but it's not generating the same level of fear as two months ago when the "fiscal cliff" loomed large.

Investors in sectors most likely to be affected by the cuts, like defense, seem untroubled that the budget talks could send stocks tumbling.

Talks on the U.S. budget crisis began again this week leading up to the March 1 deadline for the so-called sequestration when $85 billion in automatic federal spending cuts are scheduled to take effect.

"It's at this point a political hot button in Washington but a very low level investor concern," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. The fight pits President Barack Obama and fellow Democrats against congressional Republicans.

Stocks rallied in early January after a compromise temporarily avoided the fiscal cliff, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index <.spx> has risen 6.3 percent since the start of the year.

But the benchmark index lost steam this week, posting its first week of losses since the start of the year. Minutes on Wednesday from the last Federal Reserve meeting, which suggested the central bank may slow or stop its stimulus policy sooner than expected, provided the catalyst.

National elections in Italy on Sunday and Monday could also add to investor concern. Most investors expect a government headed by Pier Luigi Bersani to win and continue with reforms to tackle Italy's debt problems. However, a resurgence by former leader Silvio Berlusconi has raised doubts.

"Europe has been in the last six months less of a topic for the stock market, but the problems haven't gone away. This may bring back investor attention to that," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.

OPTIONS BULLS TARGET GAINS

The spending cuts, if they go ahead, could hit the defense industry particularly hard.

Yet in the options market, bulls were targeting gains in Lockheed Martin Corp , the Pentagon's biggest supplier.

Calls on the stock far outpaced puts, suggesting that many investors anticipate the stock to move higher. Overall options volume on the stock was 2.8 times the daily average with 17,000 calls and 3,360 puts traded, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert.

"The upside call buying in Lockheed solidifies the idea that option investors are not pricing in a lot of downside risk in most defense stocks from the likely impact of sequestration," said Jared Woodard, a founder of research and advisory firm condoroptions.com in Forest, Virginia.

The stock ended up 0.6 percent at $88.12 on Friday.

If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement on reducing the U.S. budget deficit in the next few days, a sequester would include significant cuts in defense spending. Companies such as General Dynamics Corp and Smith & Wesson Holding Corp could be affected.

General Dynamics Corp shares rose 1.2 percent to $67.32 and Smith & Wesson added 4.6 percent to $9.18 on Friday.

EYES ON GDP DATA, APPLE

The latest data on fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product is expected on Thursday, and some analysts predict an upward revision following trade data that showed America's deficit shrank in December to its narrowest in nearly three years.

U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, according to an earlier government estimate, but analysts said there was no reason for panic, given that consumer spending and business investment picked up.

Investors will be looking for any hints of changes in the Fed's policy of monetary easing when Fed Chairman Ben Bernake speaks before congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Shares of Apple will be watched closely next week when the company's annual stockholders' meeting is held.

On Friday, a U.S. judge handed outspoken hedge fund manager David Einhorn a victory in his battle with the iPhone maker, blocking the company from moving forward with a shareholder vote on a controversial proposal to limit the company's ability to issue preferred stock.

(Additional reporting by Doris Frankel; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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Shares, euro extend losses as Europe recovery hopes dim

LONDON (Reuters) - European shares and the single currency fell sharply on Thursday when surprisingly weak euro zone economic data dashed hopes of an early recovery for the recession-hit region this year.

Economists had forecast the euro zone purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs), based on surveys of business activity, would add to tentative signs a recovery was under way, but instead they pointed to a first-quarter contraction of up to 0.3 percent.

"The expectation was the trend of improvement for the euro zone as a whole would continue and it hasn't, so that is a disappointment," said BNP Paribas economist Ken Wattret.

The euro tumbled to a fresh six-week low below $1.32 on the news, having already suffered at the hands of a resurgent greenback following signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday that it was considering an end to monetary stimulus.

Signs that Fed policymakers were becoming increasingly reluctant to continue aggressive monetary easing, revealed in the minutes of the last policy meeting, had sparked a worldwide selloff in riskier asset markets.

MSCI's world equity index <.miwd00000pus>, already down 0.5 percent on the doubts about future Fed policy, took another step down after the PMI data to be one percent lower for the day, having touched its best levels since mid-2008 on Wednesday.

Europe's Eurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> shed 1.25 percent, on track for its second biggest daily loss of the year. London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> were all down as much as 1.8 percent lower.

SAFETY PLAYS WELL

In the fixed income market, German bonds, considered a safe haven, hit their best levels for a month with the main Bund futures contract up 91 ticks to 143.33. The move reversed a fall seen on Wednesday and was also being supported by the approach of an Italian general election this weekend.

"Investors are becoming more and more cautious ahead of the weekend ... and altogether people decided here to pull the trigger and go risk-off," said Christian Lenk, a strategist at DZ Bank.

The dollar, another safety play, followed up its big gains on Wednesday adding a further 0.45 percent on an index value that includes most major currencies <.dxy>, although it slipped against the yen to 93.35.

The Markit composite PMI for the euro zone, which combines both services and manufacturing surveys, fell to 47.3 in February from 48.6. It had been expected to rise to 49.0.

The data also showed a growing gap between Germany and France - the two biggest economies in the euro zone - which could have implications for the European Central Bank's future monetary policy.

The survey found firms in Germany are enjoying a healthy rate of growth, while French service sector companies are in the midst of their worst slump since the financial crisis was at a peak in early 2009.

"The theme is still the very substantial divergence between France and Germany and that is going continue to be the case for much of the year," said Wattret of BNP Paribas.

"On the margins this is going to resonate with the dovish tone from the ECB at its last meeting, but I think the real swing factor for the ECB will be exchange rate factor and the tightening impact it is having."

The strength of the euro has been holding back exports.

In commodity markets, the prospect of weakening demand from Europe and a possible early end to the Fed's policy of quantitative easing sent all markets lower.

London copper struck its lowest in nearly two months, at $7,870 a tonne, while oil dropped below $114.50 a barrel for the first time this month having seen its biggest daily fall of the year on Wednesday.

Growth-attuned precious metal platinum fell 3 percent to hit a five-week low. Traditional safe haven gold popped higher, to $1,568 an ounce, after the Fed minutes had pushed it to a seven-month low.

"Long-position holders have been looking to sell for profit-taking," said Yusuke Seta, a commodity sales manager at Newedge Japan. "I guess this is a good time to sell."

(Additional reporting by Marc Jones.; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)

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Stock index futures signal more gains

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures pointed to a slightly firmer open on Wall Street on Wednesday, with futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 0.1 percent higher at 0936 GMT, while those for the Nasdaq 100 added 0.2 percent.

U.S. producer prices, housing starts and building permits for January are all due at 1330 GMT, with the data expected to show a slight acceleration in factory price pressures alongside a continued recovery in the housing market.

The market focus, though, is likely to be on the minutes from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting, due at 1900 GMT, which will be scanned for clues on how long monetary policy is likely to remain ultra accommodative.

The earnings season continues, with Devon Energy Corp., Fluor Corp. and Newfield Exploration among those due to report.

With the season now three quarters of the way through, 28 percent of S&P 500 companies have missed full-year earnings forecasts, with 41 percent undershooting on revenues, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine data.

Dell Inc : The world's No.3 maker of personal computers reported a 31 percent drop in profit, hurt by a shrinking consumer business, as investors weighed founder Michael Dell's offer to buy out the firm.

Demand Media Inc : The company said it is exploring the separation of its media business from its domain name service, a disclosure that sent its shares up nearly 20 percent in after-hours trading.

Boeing : The aircraft maker has found a way to fix battery problems with its grounded 787 Dreamliner jets which involves increasing the space between cells, a source familiar with the U.S. company's plans told Reuters.

Life Technologies : An $11 billion-plus sale of Life Technologies Corp is looking less likely as a gap in price expectations with the company has left potential buyer Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc skeptical about a deal while buyout firms' offers came up short, people familiar with the matter said this week.

Herbalife : The diet supplements company raised its 2013 earnings forecast late on Tuesday.

Heinz : The FBI is looking into possible insider trading in the options of the ketchup maker before its blockbuster deal last week to be acquired by Warren Buffett and Brazil's 3G Capital.

Sina Corp : The operator of China's largest online portal posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue and profit amid concerns about the slowing growth of Chinese online advertising.

Milennial Media : The mobile advertising firm's fourth-quarter sales missed Wall Street expectations, and the company forecast first-quarter revenue below analysts' estimates, sending its shares down as much as 33 percent after the bell.

Marriott International : The hotel operator reported better-than-expected quarterly results, aided by rising international travel and higher rates, and said it expects per-room revenue to rise further in 2013.

Nabors Industries : The owner of the world's largest onshore drilling rig fleet, reported a 44 percent jump in profit, but revenue fell as its major customers curtailed spending amid the worst slowdown in gas-directed drilling in more than a decade.

Total System Services Inc : The Payment processor said it will buy prepaid debit card provider NetSpend Holdings Inc for about $1.4 billion in cash to expand its presence in the prepaid card market and target new customers.

European shares traded flat on Wednesday, consolidating after the previous session's sharp gains, held back by weak earnings newsflow and as traders cited caution ahead of the minutes to the U.S. Federal Reserve's January policy meeting. <.eu/>

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> gained 53.91 points, or 0.39 percent on Tuesday to 14,035.67 points - just 0.9 percent away from its record high. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> closed up 0.73 percent at 1,530.94, while the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> added or 0.68 percent to 3,213.59.

(Reporting By Toni Vorobyova; Editing by Susan Fenton)

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European shares edge higher, euro flat ahead German data

LONDON (Reuters) - European shares edged higher and the euro was steady on Tuesday ahead of German economic sentiment data, while the yen rose after Japanese ministers played down talk the Bank of Japan might buy foreign bonds to loosen credit.

Following last week's GDP figures showing that the euro zone saw a weaker end to 2012 than expected, forecasters see a pick-up in Germany's ZEW survey of investors and analysts at 1000 GMT, which may point to rebound in the bloc's biggest economy.

European stock markets, which have lost around 1.5 percent since the end of January, bounced backed from Monday's weak session in early trading, with the FTSEurofirst 300 <.fteu3> up 0.4 percent led by 0.7 and 0.5 percent gains on Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi>.

Underscoring the drag Europe's economic sluggishness is creating, new figures showed car firms had their weakest January since the records of the Association of European Carmakers began in 1990, with sales dropping 8.5 percent.

Berkeley Futures associate director Richard Griffiths said the Euro STOXX 50 and German DAX <.gdaxi> equity index could fall by between 3 and 4 percent over the coming month as economic weakness acts to cap investor sentiment.

"Any inroads to the upside will be hard to come by," he said. "We're in for a period of consolidation, with the risk more to the downside."

In the bond market, benchmark German Bunds edged up as demand for low-risk debt was also supported by concerns over the possibility of an inconclusive outcome to the Italian parliamentary election on Sunday and Monday, though gains were capped ahead of the German sentiment data.

The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.3345 by 0900 GMT after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated on Monday that the bank would continue to monitor whether the currency's recent strength was likely to push inflation below its comfort zone.

The yen rose after Japanese ministers played down talk of foreign-bond buying by the country's central bank, a day after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said such a policy could be one option for monetary easing.

Finance Minister Taro Aso told a news conference that he was not considering foreign-bond purchases as a part of monetary easing, while Economy Minister Akira Amari said Abe's comments on Monday simply referred to policy options countries have in general.

Their comments sent the dollar down to 93.39 yen. The euro eased 0.6 percent to 124.70 yen, well below its peak since April 2010 of 127.71 yen touched on February 6.

(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)

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Euro, dollar up after G20, stocks ease on growth concern

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro and the dollar rose against the yen on Monday after the G20 decided not to criticize Japan for its expansionist policies, but shares eased as Europe's weak growth outlook weighed on sentiment.

Financial leaders from the world's 20 biggest economies promised on Saturday not to devalue their currencies to boost exports, aiming to defuse talk of currency wars that had been roiling the markets.

The euro gained 0.2 percent to 125.32 yen, edging up toward a 34-month high of 127.71 yen hit earlier this month, while the dollar rose 0.6 percent to 94 yen, closer to its highest level since May 2010 of 94.46 hit on February 11.

"Future yen direction will continue to be driven by domestic monetary policy from the Bank of Japan and improving international investor confidence, which are both driving the yen weaker," said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is poised to nominate a new BOJ governor. Sources told Reuters that former financial bureaucrat Toshiro Muto, considered likely to be less radical than other candidates, was leading the field.

Abe said on Monday that buying foreign bonds was a future option for the Bank of Japan, which would entail selling of the yen by the central bank.

The euro was also rising against the dollar, gaining 0.1 percent to $1.3375 ahead of address by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi to the region's parliament which may touch on the outlook for the single currency after the G20 meeting.

In European markets, attention was also switching to the release of euro area Purchasing Managers' Indexes for February and German sentiment indices due later in the week, and the upcoming general elections in Italy.

Analysts expect Thursday's euro area flash PMI indices, which point to economic activity around six months out, to show growth stabilizing across the recession-hit region, leaving hopes for a recovery in the second half of the year intact.

Concerns over an inconclusive outcome in Italian elections at the end of the week added to the weaker sentiment as a fragmented parliament could hamper a future government's reform efforts.

The worries about the outlook for Italy were encouraging investors back into safe have German government bonds on Monday, with 10-year Bund yields easing 3.6 basis points to be around 1.63 percent.

"Political uncertainty will keep Bunds well bid this week," ING rate strategist Alessandro Giansanti said, adding that only better than expected economic data could create selling pressure on German debt near term.

EARNINGS HIT

European equity markets were taking their lead from corporate earnings reports which have been reflecting the sluggish economic conditions across the region.

Danish brewer Carlsberg , which generates just over 60 percent of its sales in western Europe, became the latest company to report a weaker-than-expected quarterly profit, sending its shares to lowest level in nearly a month.

The 5 percent drop in price for shares in the world's fourth biggest brewery helped send the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> of top European shares down 0.4 percent in morning trade. Germany's DAX <.gdaxi>, the UK FTSE <.ftse> and France's CAC-40 <.fchi> were all also slightly weaker. <.l><.eu/>

Earlier, the effect of the G20 statement and the comments from Abe indicating a renewed drive to stimulate the economy lifted the Nikkei stock index <.n225> by 2.1 percent, near to its highest level since September 2008.

U.S. stock futures were barely changed and are expected to stay little changed as Wall Street will be closed on Monday for the Presidents' Day holiday. <.n/>

MSCI's world equity index <.miwd00000pus> was flat as markets extended two-week period of consolidation that has followed the big run up in January when demand was buoyed by the efforts of global central banks to stimulate the world economy.

Data from EPFR Global, a US-based firm that tracks the flows and allocations of funds globally, shows investors pulled $3.62 billion from U.S. stock funds in the latest week, the most in 10 weeks after taking a neutral stance the prior week.

But demand for emerging market equities remained strong, with investors putting $1.81 billion in new cash into stock funds, the fund-tracking firm said.

CHINA RETURN

In the commodity markets traders played catch up after a week-long holiday last week in China, the world's second biggest consumer of many raw materials, had kept activity subdued, with worries about the euro zone economy weighing on sentiment.

Copper, for which China is the world's largest consumer, fell 0.8 percent to $8,135 a metric ton (1.1023 tons) on the London futures market.

Gold rebounded by 0.3 percent from a six-month low to be $1,614 an ounce as jewelers in China returned to the physical market after the Lunar New Year holiday.

Crude oil markets were mostly steady after some weak U.S. industrial production data on Friday [ID:nL1N0BF44A] was seen dampening demand, while tensions in the Middle East lent some support.

U.S. crude fell 20 cents to $95.66 a barrel but Brent inched up two cents $117.86.

(Reporting by Richard Hubbard; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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After decent rally, perhaps time for a pause

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks could struggle to extend their seven-week winning streak as the quarterly earnings period draws to a close and the market bumps into strong technical resistance.

Many analysts say the market could spend the next few weeks consolidating gains that have lifted the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 <.spx> by 6.6 percent since the start of the year.

The S&P 500 ended up 0.1 percent for the week, recovering from a late sell-off on Friday after a Bloomberg report about slow February sales at Wal-Mart triggered a slide in the retailer's shares. It was the index's seventh week of gains.

Odds of a pullback are increasing, with the market in slightly overbought territory, said Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston.

"I do suspect the closing of the earnings season will lead to at least a pause and possibly a pullback," Zaro said. The S&P 500 could shave 3 to 5 percent between now and early April, he said.

Fourth-quarter earnings have mostly beaten expectations. Year-over-year profit growth for S&P 500 companies is now estimated at 5.6 percent, up from a January 1 forecast for 2.9 percent growth, and 70 percent of companies are exceeding analyst profit expectations, above the 62 percent long-term average, according to Thomson Reuters data.

On Thursday, Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, is due to report results, unofficially closing out the earnings period. Investors will be keen to see its quarterly numbers, especially after the Friday's news report that rattled investors.

The S&P 500 has gained 4.3 percent since Alcoa kicked off the earnings season on January 8.

The approaching March 1 deadline for across-the-board federal budget cuts unless Congress reaches a compromise adds another reason for caution, especially with recent economic data indicating the recovery remains bumpy.

Manufacturing output fell 0.4 percent last month, the Federal Reserve said on Friday, but production in November and December was much stronger than previously thought.

TESTING RESISTANCE

The S&P 500 has been trading near five-year highs, and it notched its highest level since November 2007 this week. But the gains have pushed the benchmark index almost as far as it is likely to go in the near term, with strong resistance hovering around 1,525 and 1,540, one analyst said.

As a result, the index is set to move sideways, said Dave Chojnacki, market technician at Street One Financial in Huntington Valley, Pennsylvania. "We just don't have the volume or the catalyst right now" to go above those levels, he said.

At the same time, other analysts say, the market has not shown significant signs of slowing, including a break below 15- and 30-day moving averages.

Such moves would be needed to show that momentum is slowing or that the market is at risk of a correction, said Todd Salamone, director of research for Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio. The S&P 500's 14-day moving average is at 1,511 while the 30-day is at 1,494. The index closed Friday at 1,519.

Recent M&A activity, including news this week of a merger between American Airlines and US Airways Group , helped provide some strength for the market this week and optimism that more deals may be on the way.

In the coming days, the market will focus on minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, due to be released on Wednesday, which could provide support if they suggest the Fed will remain on its current course of aggressive monetary easing.

The Fed minutes released in January spooked markets a bit when they revealed that some Fed officials thought it would be appropriate to consider ending asset purchases later in 2013. U.S. Treasury yields rose on that news, though market worries about a near-term end to quantitative easing have since faded.

Among other companies expected to report earnings next week are Nordstrom , Hewlett-Packard and Marriott International

(Reporting By Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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G20 defuses talk of "currency war", no accord on debt

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Group of 20 nations declared on Saturday there would be no 'currency war' and deferred plans to set new debt-cutting targets in an indication of concern about the fragile state of the world economy.

Japan's expansive policies, which have driven down the yen, escaped criticism in a statement thrashed out in Moscow by financial policymakers from the G20, which groups developed and emerging markets and accounts for 90 percent of the world economy.

After late night talks, finance ministers and central bankers agreed on wording closer than expected to a joint statement issued last Tuesday by the Group of Seven rich nations backing market-determined exchange rates.

A draft communique seen by delegates on Friday had steered clear of the G7's call for fiscal and monetary policy not to be targeted at exchange rates but the later version included a G20 commitment to refrain from competitive devaluations and stated monetary policy would be directed at price stability and growth.

"The language has been strengthened since our discussions last night," Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told reporters. "It's stronger than it was, but it was quite clear last night that everyone around the table wants to avoid any sort of currency disputes."

The communique, seen by Reuters ahead of publication, did not single out Japan for aggressive monetary and fiscal policies that have seen the yen drop 20 percent.

The statement reflected a substantial, but not complete, endorsement of Tuesday's statement by the G7 nations - the United States, Japan, Britain, Canada, France, Germany and Italy.

"We all agreed on the fact that we refuse to enter any currency war," French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici told reporters.

NO FISCAL TARGETS

The text also contained a commitment to credible medium-term fiscal strategy, but stopped short of setting specific goals.

A debt-cutting pact struck in Toronto in 2010 will expire this year if leaders fail to agree to extend it at a G20 summit of leaders in St Petersburg in September.

"Advanced economies will develop credible medium-term fiscal strategies ... by the St. Petersburg summit," the communique said.

The United States says is on track to meet its Toronto pledge but argues that the pace of future fiscal consolidation must not snuff out demand. Germany and others are pressing for another round of binding debt-cutting goals.

Backing in the communique for the use of domestic monetary policy to support economic recovery reflected the U.S. Federal Reserve's commitment to monetary stimulus through quantitative easing, or QE, to promote recovery and jobs.

QE entails large-scale bond buying -- $85 billion a month in the Fed's case -- that helps economic growth but creates money, much of which has leaked into emerging markets, threatening to destabilize them.

That was offset in the communique by a commitment to minimize "negative spillovers" of the resulting financial flows that emerging markets fear may pump up asset bubbles and ruin their export competitiveness.

"Major developed nations (should) pay attention to their monetary policy spillover," Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao was quoted by state news agency Xinhua as saying in Moscow.

"Major developed countries' implementation of excessively relaxed currency policy has an influence on the world economy."

Russia, this year's chair of the G20, said the group had failed to reach agreement on medium-term budget deficit levels and also expressed concern about ultra-loose policies that it and other big emerging economies say could store up trouble for later.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said a rebalancing of global growth required more than an adjustment of exchange rates.

"Structural reforms in all countries, either with a positive or negative balance of payments, should play a bigger role," he said in an address to Saturday's talks, also highlighting the risk of spillover effects from unconventional monetary policy.

The G20 put together a huge financial backstop to halt a market meltdown in 2009 but has failed to reach those heights since. At successive meetings, Germany has pressed the United States and others to do more to tackle their debts. Washington in turn has urged Berlin to do more to increase demand.

On currencies, the G20 text reiterated its commitment last November, to move towards "exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals and avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments".

"The G7 made a very clear statement this week. I think you'll see the G20 echo what was said, and say that currencies should not be used as a tool of competitive devaluation," Britain's finance minister, George Osborne, said in Moscow.

"Countries shouldn't make the mistake of the past of using currencies as a tool of economic warfare."

(Additional reporting by Randall Palmer, Lesley Wroughton, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Jan Strupczewski, Lidia Kelly, Katya Golubkova, Jason Bush and Michael Martina. Writing by Douglas Busvine. Editing by Timothy Heritage/Mike Peacock)

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Yen firms as G20 eyed, weak Europe dampens mood

LONDON (Reuters) - The yen firmed on Friday as investors braced for the likelihood of more conflicting comments on currencies from the G20 meeting, while a revival in worries about global economic growth weighed on shares and commodities.

The G20 forum in Moscow is in the spotlight as officials are expected to discuss whether the ultra loose monetary polices of the United States, Japan, Britain and the euro zone depart from the group's commitment to market-driven exchange rates.

The dollar shed 0.5 percent to 92.46 yen, dropping as far as a one-week low of 92.25 yen while the euro fell to a two-week low of 123.10 yen.

The Japanese currency gained some support when a Russian official said drafting the final communique from the G20 meeting was proving difficult, but the text would not single out Japan for criticism.

"There is an issue of 'who started the fire?' You can say that Japan has getting really aggressive but then they might say, well what have Americans done, what about the British and so on," said William De Vijlder, chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Investment Partners.

The yen was also underpinned by expectations that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is close to selecting his nominee for Bank of Japan governor. A decision could come in the next few days, sources close to the process told Reuters [ID:nL4N0BF1LS]

Shares were broadly flat with the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> little changed at 1,163.34 points following dismal gross domestic product data from across the euro zone on Thursday.

The surprisingly sharp contraction in the region's economy during the final three months of 2012 has undermined hopes of an early recovery from recession, but also boosted talk that the European Central Bank may have to ease policy further.

Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and London's FTSE <.ftse> were around 0.1 to 0.3 percent lower.

The weaker demand outlook implied by the GDP data sent Brent crude under $118 a barrel and on course for its first weekly loss since mid-January.

Front-month Brent futures LCOc1 fell 30 cents to $117.70 a barrel, while Gold dropped to a six-week low of $1,629.89 an ounce, and was headed for its biggest weekly drop since December.

(Reporting by Richard Hubbard; editing by David Stamp)

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Euro falls as German, French economies disappoint

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro dropped and European shares fell on Thursday as growth data from the region's two largest economies came in weaker than forecast, throwing a first quarter recovery for the bloc into doubt.

The German economy, Europe's largest, contracted by 0.6 percent in the final quarter of 2012, marking its worst performance since the global financial crisis was raging in 2009.

Worryingly for Berlin, it was export performance - the motor of its economy - that did most of the damage. France's 0.3 percent fall was also a touch worse than expectations.

The figures suggest the euro zone could remain slumped in recession in the first quarter of this year and pushed down the euro 0.5 percent to a session low $1.3382.

"This is major data, so it's dampening sentiment," said Anita Paluch, sales trader at Gekko Capital Markets.

"It is kind of disappointing that Germany, which had shown so much resilience, is now showing signs of suffering from the debt crisis."

Stock markets also edged lower although the impact was not so marked. The pan-European ESTOXX 50 index <.stoxx50e> was down 0.1 percent by 0815 GMT with London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> all down by a similar amount.

German bonds were steady, stabilizing after a fall in the previous session as demand for traditional safe-haven assets returned.

Benchmark Bund futures were 3 ticks higher on the day at 142.08, with analysts targeting a further rise if the remaining GDP data for countries such as Italy (0900 GMT), and the euro zone as a whole (1000 GMT), also come in weak.

The pain is not confined to Europe. Japan, under some pressure over its aggressive monetary and fiscal policies which are driving down the yen, came up with an unwanted riposte earlier on Thursday - its GDP shrank 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, leaving it in recession and crushing expectations of a modest return to growth.

The Bank of Japan also kept monetary policy steady and upgraded its economic assessment, as recent falls in the yen and signs of a pick-up in global growth in recent months give it some breathing space after expanding stimulus just a month ago.

Markets in China and Taiwan remain shut for the Lunar New Year holiday but Hong Kong resumed trading on Thursday.

(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Peter Graff)

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Stock index futures point to slightly higher start

LONDON (Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a slightly higher open on Wall Street on Wednesday, with futures for the S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.1-0.2 percent at 0958 GMT (4.58 a.m EST).

European shares were slightly lower, although they remained near the top of a six-day trading range. French bank Societe Generale sank 3.7 percent after it unveiled a bigger-than-expected quarterly loss.

U.S. President Barack Obama said in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday he backs higher taxes for the wealthy and a $50 billion spending plan to create jobs by rebuilding degraded roads and bridges.

The U.S. Commerce Dept. releases U.S. retail sales data at 1330 GMT. It was expected to show a 0.1 percent rise in January, slowing from a 0.5 percent increase in December as consumers eyed smaller paychecks on the back of a recent tax increase.

Business inventories data for December, due at 1500 GMT, are expected to show a rise of 0.3 percent, a repeat of the November increase.

Comcast Corp clinched full control of NBC Universal for $16.7 billion on Tuesday, the latest in a series of deals that have taken the cable operator from humble roots in Tupelo, Mississippi, to Manhattan's iconic Rockerfeller Center.

The group is due to unveil fourth-quarter results before the market open, with earnings per share seen at $0.53 from $0.47 one year earlier.

Networking equipment maker, Cisco Systems , is expected to report a $0.01 increase in its quarterly earnings per share, with corporate North America and parts of Europe showing signs of improvement. The results are due after the market close.

Chip-maker Nvidia is also among companies due to report quarterly results.

Clearwire Corp , the wireless service provider that both Sprint Nextel S.N and Dish Network DISH.O want to buy, said on Tuesday that it would need Sprint financing to keep afloat up to the end of the year.

Asset manager Legg Mason Inc is preparing to name its interim head, Joseph Sullivan, as its permanent chief executive, two people familiar with the matter said, as the company turns to a sales chief to stop an outflow of funds.

BlackRock Inc named Morgan Stanley MS.N banker and long-time financial advisor Gary Shedlin as its next chief financial officer, to succeed Ann Marie Petach.

Yahoo Inc Chief Executive Marissa Mayer said the company's search partnership with Microsoft Corp was not delivering the market share gains or the revenue boost that it should.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> closed 47.46 points higher, or 0.34 percent, at 14,018.70 on Tuesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 2.42 points, or 0.16 percent, at 1,519.43. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 5.51 points, or 0.17 percent, at 3,186.49.

(Reporting by Francesco Canepa; editing by Patrick Graham)

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Yen near lows vs dollar, Asian shares ease in subdued trade

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen hovered near its lows against the dollar and Tokyo stocks jumped closer to a 33-month high on Tuesday after markets took comments from a U.S. official as approval for Japan to pursue anti-deflation policies that weaken the yen.

U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Lael Brainard said on Monday the United States supports Japanese efforts to end deflation, but she noted that the G7 has long been committed to exchange rates determined by market forces, "except in rare circumstances where excess volatility or disorderly movements might warrant cooperation.

"Her (Brainard's) comments gave confidence to the market. It was surprising, and was taken as the Obama administration giving a green light to 'Abenomics'," said Takuya Takahashi, a market analyst at Daiwa Securities.

Japan has faced some overseas criticism that it is intentionally trying to weaken the yen with monetary easing, but talk of a so-called currency war was dialled back ahead of a Group of 20 meeting in Moscow on Friday and Saturday.

G20 officials said on Monday the Group of Seven nations are considering a statement this week reaffirming their commitment to "market-determined" exchange rates.

European Central Bank council member Jens Weidmann also said the euro was not overvalued at current levels.

The dollar slipped 0.3 percent to 94.185 yen after marking its highest level since May 2010 of 94.465 on Monday. The euro eased 0.3 percent to 126.12 yen after rising more than 2 percent on Monday. It hit its highest since April 2010 of 127.71 yen last week.

"I think the yen's weakening is a function of (playing)catch-up," and not Japan resorting to deliberate devaluation of its currency, said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. "It's the market's way of saying: 'We're convinced there is a movement afoot to reinflate Japan.'"

The yen is pressured by anticipation that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will endorse a far more dovish Bank of Japan regime when the current leadership's term ends next month, although the BOJ is expected to refrain from taking fresh easing steps when it meets this week.

Share trading was subdued with many regional bourses shut for holidays. Encouraging trade data from China late last week was lending support to sentiment but non-Japan markets lacked momentum as investors awaited key events such as the U.S. president's State of the Union address for trading cues.

European markets are seen inching lower, with the Euro STOXX 50 index futures down 0.1 percent. A 0.2 percent drop in U.S. stock futures also suggested a soft Wall Street start. <.l><.eu><.n/>

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> fell 0.1 percent, with Australian shares closing flat ahead of corporate earnings due this week.

The weaker yen in turn hoisted the Nikkei stock average <.n225> to close 1.9 percent higher on improving earnings prospects for exporters. <.t/>

Trading resumed in Japan and South Korea but markets in Singapore, Hong Kong, mainland China, Malaysia and Taiwan remained closed.

STATE OF UNION ADDRESS

Currency and equities markets were also looking ahead to President Barack Obama's State of the Union address later on Tuesday night, for any signs of a deal to avert automatic spending cuts due to take effect March 1.

"We believe that the G20's take on currency wars, Mr. Obama's upcoming state of the union address, and data on the current condition of the U.S. economy should help markets assess where the global recovery stands and where we are heading," Barclays Capital said in a research report.

U.S. and Chinese data last week lifted the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> to a 12-year closing high and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> to a five-year peak on Friday.

Financial markets showed a muted reaction to the news that North Korea has conducted a nuclear test.

"The test was not something that makes your heart pound as much as a pressing situation between Iran and Israel," said Kaname Gokon, research manager at brokerage Okato Shoji, referring to the threat of possible military action to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

U.S. crude futures edged down 0.1 percent to $96.90 a barrel while Brent steadied around $118.

Spot gold stayed near a one-month low.

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa, Lisa Twaronite and Osamu Tsukimori in Tokyo; Editing by Chris Gallagher)

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Stock index futures signal higher open

PARIS (Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street on Monday, with futures for the S&P 500 up 0.07 percent, Dow Jones futures up 0.08 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.03 percent at 03.44 a.m. EST.

European stocks fell, reversing Friday's rebound as simmering worries over Spain and Italy continued to spook investors. <.eu> Most Asian bourses, including those in Japan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea, were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

US Airways Group Inc and AMR Corp are nearing an $11 billion merger that would create the world's largest airline and could announce a deal within a week, after resolving key differences on valuation and management structure, people familiar with the matter said.

Google Inc Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt is selling roughly 42 percent of his stake in the Internet search company, a move that could potentially net the former chief executive a $2.51 billion windfall.

Three of Dell Inc's largest investors joined Southeastern Asset Management on Friday in objecting to a $24.4 billion buyout of the No. 3 PC maker led by Chief Executive Michael Dell, sources said, as opposition grows to the largest buyout since the start of the financial crisis.

Boeing Co completed what it called an uneventful flight on Saturday of a test 787 Dreamliner, its first since the airplanes were grounded more than three weeks ago after a series of battery-related problems.

Apple Inc. is experimenting with the design of a device similar to a wristwatch that would operate on the same platform as the iPhone and would be made with curved glass, the New York Times reported on Sunday.

The Nasdaq composite stock index closed at a 12-year high and the S&P 500 index at a five-year high, boosted by gains in technology shares and stronger overseas trade figures.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> ended up 48.92 points, or 0.35 percent, at 13,992.97. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 8.54 points, or 0.57 percent, at 1,517.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 28.74 points, or 0.91 percent, at 3,193.87, its highest closing level since November 2000.

(Reporting by Blaise Robinson; editing by Patrick Graham)

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Stocks end higher for sixth straight week, tech leads

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Nasdaq composite stock index closed at a 12-year high and the S&P 500 index at a five-year high, boosted by gains in technology shares and stronger overseas trade figures.

The S&P 500 also posted a sixth straight week of gains for the first time since August.

The technology sector led the day's gains, with the S&P 500 technology index <.splrct> up 1.0 percent. Gains in professional network platform LinkedIn Corp and AOL Inc after they reported quarterly results helped the sector.

Shares of LinkedIn jumped 21.3 percent to $150.48 after the social networking site announced strong quarterly profits and gave a bullish forecast for the year.

AOL Inc shares rose 7.4 percent to $33.72 after the online company reported higher quarterly profit, boosted by a 13 percent rise in advertising sales.

Data showed Chinese exports grew more than expected, a positive sign for the global economy. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in December, suggesting the U.S. economy likely grew in the fourth quarter instead of contracting slightly as originally reported by the U.S. government.

"That may have sent a ray of optimism," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

Trading volume on Friday was below average for the week as a blizzard swept into the northeastern United States.

The U.S. stock market has posted strong gains since the start of the year, with the S&P 500 up 6.4 percent since December 31. The advance has slowed in recent days, with fourth-quarter earnings winding down and few incentives to continue the rally on the horizon.

"I think we're in the middle of a trading range and I'd put plus or minus 5.0 percent around it. Fundamental factors are best described as neutral," Dickson said.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> ended up 48.92 points, or 0.35 percent, at 13,992.97. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 8.54 points, or 0.57 percent, at 1,517.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 28.74 points, or 0.91 percent, at 3,193.87, its highest closing level since November 2000.

For the week, the Dow was down 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 was up 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq up 0.5 percent.

Shares of Dell closed at $13.63, up 0.7 percent, after briefly trading above a buyout offering price of $13.65 during the session.

Dell's largest independent shareholder, Southeastern Asset Management, said it plans to oppose the buyout of the personal computer maker, setting up a battle for founder Michael Dell.

Signs of economic strength overseas buoyed sentiment on Wall Street. Chinese exports grew more than expected in January, while imports climbed 28.8 percent, highlighting robust domestic demand. German data showed a 2012 surplus that was the nation's second highest in more than 60 years, an indication of the underlying strength of Europe's biggest economy.

Separately, U.S. economic data showed the trade deficit shrank in December to $38.5 billion, its narrowest in nearly three years, indicating the economy did much better in the fourth quarter than initially estimated.

Earnings have mostly come in stronger than expected since the start of the reporting period. Fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies now are estimated up 5.2 percent versus a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data. That contrasts with a 1.9 percent growth forecast at the start of the earnings season.

Molina Healthcare Inc surged 10.4 percent to $31.88 as the biggest boost to the index after posting fourth-quarter earnings.

The CBOE Volatility index <.vix>, Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, was down 3.6 percent at 13.02. The gauge, a key measure of market expectations of short-term volatility, generally moves inversely to the S&P 500.

"I'm watching the 14 level closely" on the CBOE Volatility index, said Bryan Sapp, senior trading analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "The break below it at the beginning of the year signaled the sharp rally in January, and a rally back above it could be a sign to exercise some caution."

Volume was roughly 5.6 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the 2012 average daily closing volume of about 6.45 billion.

Advancers outpaced decliners on the NYSE by nearly 2 to 1 and on the Nasdaq by almost 5 to 3.

(Additional reporting by Angela Moon; Editing by Bernadette Baum, Nick Zieminski, Kenneth Barry and Andrew Hay)

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Euro near two-week low, shares up on rekindled rate cut hopes

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro hovered near a two-week low and European shares rose on Friday after the European Central Bank rekindled expectations that it could again take the knife to interest rates.

Strong Chinese trade data also helped lift optimism about global growth prospects, boosting oil, copper and Asian shares, although investors booking profits before next week's Chinese new year holidays limited gains.

ECB President Mario Draghi levered the door to a rate cut back open on Thursday, saying the bank would monitor the potential downward pressure of a strengthening euro on already near-target inflation.

European share markets opened higher on the hopes lower borrowing rates would also reverse some of the 8 percent trade-weighted rise in the euro over the last six months that has began to weigh on exporters.

"We're in a 'risk-on' mode and continental Europe should continue to do well in this environment," said Cyrille Urfer, who heads up asset allocation at Swiss bank Gonet.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 <.fteu3> was up 0.5 percent by 0815 GMT, though it remained on course for its second weekly loss in a row.

London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> were up 0.6, 0.4 and 0.3 percent respectively and U.S. stock futures pointed to a steady Wall Street start. <.l><.eu><.n/>

While Draghi said the euro's recent surge was a sign of a return of confidence, he said: "We certainly want to see whether the appreciation is sustained and will alter our risk assessment as far as price stability is concerned."

The comments went further than many analysts had expected and as European trading gathered pace the euro steadied at $1.3398 after earlier dropping to $1.33705, the lowest since January 25.

China said its exports grew 25 percent in January from a year ago, the strongest showing since April 2011 and well ahead of market expectations for a 17 percent rise, while imports also beat forecasts, surging 28.8 percent on the year.

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> added 0.3 percent and Australian shares rallied 0.7 percent to 34-month highs.

"China's economic conditions are improving and the trade data confirms the continuation of a recovery trend. Not just the trade data but retail, production and investment flows clearly show that the economy bottomed out in the third quarter last year," said Hirokazu Yuihama, a senior strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

In the bond market, benchmark German Bund futures were little changed in early trade as Draghi's cautious tone on the euro zone's economy underpinned demand for low risk assets.

Investors focused on Irish bonds after benchmark 10-year yields slid to their lowest since before the start of the subprime crisis in 2007 on news Dublin had clinched a bank debt deal that will cut its borrowing needs over the next decade.

(Additional reporting by Sudip Kar-Gupta; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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Stock index futures signal mixed open

PARIS (Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a mixed open on Wall Street on Thursday. Futures for the S&P 500 were down 0.05 percent, Dow Jones futures down 0.07 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.05 percent at 0933 GMT.

European shares steadied on Thursday as investors awaited the European Central Bank's policy meeting later in the day and President Mario Draghi's views on the region's growth prospects.

Draghi faces a grilling over the euro's sharp rise and his connection to an Italian banking scandal at the ECB meeting where interest rates are almost certain to be unchanged.

Visa Inc's quarterly profit beat analysts' estimates for the ninth consecutive quarter.

Rupert Murdoch's News Corp on Wednesday reported higher quarterly revenue and profit on strong growth at its cable assets including its Regional Sports and FX networks.

Boeing Co is working on battery design changes that would minimize fire risks on its grounded 787 Dreamliner and could have the passenger jet flying again as soon as March, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc forecast sales growth for the current quarter that is slightly lower than analysts expected as retailers work through unsold inventory of its products after a slower-than-expected holiday season.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd , the main manufacturer of Apple Inc products, said on Thursday consolidated January sales dropped 8.19 percent from a year earlier.

A U.S. judge threw out a lawsuit from South Korea's Woori Bank accusing Bank of America Corp's Merrill Lynch unit of misleading investors about the riskiness of collateralized debt obligations, saying the suit had missed a deadline under South Korean law.

CVS Caremark Corp said on Wednesday it bought Drogaria Onofre, Brazil's eighth-largest drugstore chain last week, marking the first time the drugstore and pharmacy services company has ventured outside the United States.

Michael Dell and his investment firm are putting up $750 million in cash toward the $24.4 billion purchase of Dell Inc to help bankroll the largest private equity-backed buyout since the financial crisis.

Yelp Inc posted a bigger-than-expected quarterly loss and its shares fell 6 percent in after-market trading as the consumer review website faces competition from Facebook Inc .

Chipmaker TriQuint Semiconductor Inc forecast current-quarter results below analysts' estimates after some orders were pulled into the fourth quarter, sending its shares down 8 percent.

Allstate Corp's quarterly profit fell 45 percent on losses from superstorm Sandy, but the home and auto insurer said it has paid out about 95 percent of Sandy claims and is seeing rate increases across businesses.

Herbalife Inc disclosed more information on Wednesday about how much its U.S. distributors earn, looking to provide more clarity as it defends its business model from critics like billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman.

On the macro front, investors awaited weekly jobless claims, due at 1330 GMT, as well as quarterly data on productivity and unit labor costs, also due at 1330 GMT.

Among the companies set to report results on Thursday feature Coca-Cola Enterprises , Hasbro, Inc. , Philip Morris International and Sprint Nextel Corp. .

U.S. stocks ended mostly flat on Wednesday, taking another pause in the recent rally that has driven the S&P 500 to five-year highs, as transportation and technology shares lost ground.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 7.22 points, or 0.05 percent, at 13,986.52. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 0.83 points, or 0.05 percent, at 1,512.12. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 3.10 points, or 0.10 percent, at 3,168.48.

(Reporting by Blaise Robinson; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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Stock index futures point to slightly higher Wall Street open

LONDON (Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a slightly higher open on Wall Street on Wednesday, with futures for the S&P 500 up 0.1 percent at 5.06 a.m EST.

* Dow Jones futures added 0.3 percent while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2 percent.

* Visa , the world's largest credit and debit card network, is expected to report earnings per share of $1.79 for its first quarter, up 1.49 from a year earlier. Smaller rival MasterCard recently reported better-than-expected results but said its revenue growth could decelerate in the first half of the year due to economic uncertainty.

* Media groups Time Warner Inc. and News Corp. were also among U.S. companies due to report results.

* Liberty Global won't change Virgin Media's strategy on network roll-out and content if its deal to buy the British cable group goes through, Liberty's chief executive said on Wednesday.

* Walt Disney Co beat estimates in quarterly adjusted earnings and said it expects the next few quarters to be better on a stronger lineup of movies and rising attendance at its theme parks. The results helped lift the media giant's shares 1.7 percent in after-hours trading.

* Take-Two Interactive Software Inc reported higher revenue and earnings in the third quarter that blew past Wall Street expectations, as the video games publisher gears up to launch a new title from its mega-blockbuster "Grand Theft Auto" series. Take-Two shares were up about 7 percent in after-hours trading after closing at $12.66 on the Nasdaq.

* Online gaming firm Zynga Inc reported an unexpected fourth-quarter profit after embracing steep cost cuts and shifting forward deferred revenue. The results were a relief to investors who had feared the company might be in free fall and Zynga's shares jumped 7 percent to $2.93 in after-hours trade.

* Nasdaq OMX Group Inc is in preliminary talks with U.S. securities regulators over a possible settlement for the glitch-ridden stock market debut of social networking site Facebook Inc , the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people with knowledge of the discussions.

* Online photo-sharing service provider Shutterfly Inc's results beat analysts' estimates in the traditionally strong fourth quarter on higher demand during the holiday season, particularly in its enterprise unit. The company's shares rose 13 percent in after-hours trading.

* European stocks were a touch higher on Wednesday, with shares in the world's largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal , rising after its upbeat outlook reassured investors.

* Japan's Nikkei average surged 3.8 percent to its highest close since October 2008 after the yen fell sharply on bets the early exit of the central bank governor would open the way for a successor who pursues aggressive monetary easing.

* The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> closed 99.22 points, or 0.71 percent, higher at 13,979.30 on Tuesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 15.58 points, or 1.04 percent, at 1,511.29. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 40.41 points, or 1.29 percent, at 3,171.58.

(Reporting By Francesco Canepa; Editing by Susan Fenton)

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U.S. stock index futures signal higher Wall Street open

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street on Tuesday, with futures for the S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 rising 0.2 to 0.3 percent.

U.S. stocks slid on Monday, giving the S&P 500 its worst day since November, as renewed worries about the euro zone crisis caused the market to pull back from recent gains. Europe's main markets were marginally in the black after the latest batch of corporate results on Tuesday.

NYSE Euronext , the exchange being bought by rival IntercontinentalExchange , said slower trading drove fourth-quarter net revenue down 11 percent to $562 million.

ICSC/Goldman Sachs release chain store sales for the week ended February 2 at 7.45 a.m EST. Sales fell 1.0 percent in the previous week.

The U.S. government has launched a civil lawsuit against Standard & Poor's and parent The McGraw-Hill Companies over mortgage bond ratings, the first federal enforcement action against a credit rating agency over alleged illegal behavior tied to the recent financial crisis.

Redbook releases its Retail Sales Index of department and chain store sales for January at 1355 GMT. Sales fell 0.5 percent in the previous month.

Major companies announcing results on Tuesday included Walt Disney Company , Automatic Data Processing and Delphi Automotive .

The Institute for Supply Management releases its January non-manufacturing index at 1500 GMT. Economists forecast a reading of 55.2, versus 55.7 in December.

John Malone's cable group Liberty Global has approached Britain's No. 2 pay-TV operator Virgin Media about making a bid for the firm, the UK group said on Tuesday.

Technology services provider IBM on Tuesday said it is aiming to take on competitors such as Oracle and Hewlett Packard by offering a more affordable Power Systems server and storage product range later this month.

Japan's transport safety agency said it is still unclear whether battery chemistry or an electrical issue caused a main battery on a Boeing Co 787 Dreamliner operated by All Nippon Airways to overheat last month, forcing it to make an emergency landing.

European shares <.fteu3> rose 0.5 percent on Tuesday, stabilizing after the previous session's sharp sell-off, as investors digested a raft of earnings reports.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> fell 129.71 points, or 0.93 percent, at 13,880.08 on Monday. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was down 17.46 points, or 1.15 percent, at 1,495.71. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 47.93 points, or 1.51 percent, at 3,131.17.

(Reporting by Atul Prakash)

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